The Abiy & TPLF-GT Faction Alliance: A Recipe for Regional Instability

The recent power struggle within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) unveils a dangerous reality: the uneasy alliance between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Getachew-Tsadkan (GT) TPLF faction poses a significant threat to Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa. Through their own words and actions, this partnership is far from bringing peace and stability; it fuels instability and risks reigniting regional conflicts.

Abiy Ahmed’s potential war with Eritrea appears to be a troubling yet desperate strategy motivated by his precarious political situation in Ethiopia. Facing an array of internal crises, including economic collapse, political fragmentation, and escalating ethnic tensions, Abiy seems to view conflict as a means to distract from his government’s failures and garner temporary support. Through state-controlled media, he has propagated the narrative that Ethiopia requires a naval base for military operations, specifically targeting Eritrea’s vital port of Assab. This urgent need to rally national unity against an external enemy may drive such a decision, especially as internal factions within the TPLF threaten his power base.

In light of these developments, the views of Ethiopian commentators like Ato Andargachew Tsige and others have emerged, advocating for unity among Ethiopia’s diverse groups. Many believe that the Eritrean people share strong geographical, historical, cultural, and religious ties with the Amhara and Tigray people of Ethiopia, making a bond between these groups natural. As both groups face oppression under Abiy’s regime, the idea of collaboration—particularly through support from the Fano militia—has gained traction. This reflects a broader sentiment that a united front may help both groups, along with the other ethnic communities that make up Ethiopia, regain their composure against oppression, with Andargachew specifically noting that Abiy’s administration is the only problem in the region.

The dramatic events unfolding in Tigray, characterized by public dismissals of senior TPLF generals and accusations of treason and sabotage, highlight the deep fissures within the organization. The apparent rift between Getachew Reda, President of the Interim Regional Administration of Tigray, and the Debretsion Gebremichael faction underscores the fragility of any supposed unity. Getachew's hasty departure to Addis Ababa, claimed to be for temporary safety, further emphasizes the volatile situation. This internal conflict, far from being an isolated incident, exposes the inherent instability within the TPLF and the unreliable nature of any alliance built on its shifting sands.

Adding to this complex situation are analysts who suggest that Abiy's motivations extend beyond military objectives; they see it as a cynical attempt to shift international blame for Ethiopia’s chaos onto Eritrea, thereby preserving his regime's survival. As internal dissent grows, with insurgent groups gaining strength across the nation, Abiy's reliance on drone warfare and military intimidation has only exacerbated unrest. The potential conflict with Eritrea might enable Abiy to divert attention from his administration's shortcomings, but such a move is fraught with risks and could have dire implications for regional stability. Ultimately, engaging in war seems less a strategic initiative and more a desperate act borne out of a need to maintain power amidst mounting pressures.

Compounding this volatile situation is the troubling rhetoric of figures like Lt. General Tsadkan Gebretensae. His recent article, ostensibly advocating for peace, masks a long history of promoting aggressive expansionist policies against Eritrea, including the forceful annexation of Assab. His assertions regarding Abiy’s war against Eritrea being in "the final stages" and the need for "shortening the war" are thinly veiled threats, revealing a disturbing commitment to conflict. This is not a call for peace but a call to arms. The seemingly contradictory statements from other TPLF leaders, including Getachew and former pro-Abiy regime TPLF leaders, further obfuscate the situation while hinting at potential conflict with Eritrea.

This internal TPLF struggle, coupled with the dangerous ambitions of certain individuals within the group, casts serious doubt on the viability of any alliance with Abiy Ahmed. The TPLF's role in initiating the 2020 Tigray War, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of casualties, cannot be ignored. Any partnership that overlooks this history and continues to empower individuals with such a demonstrably aggressive track record jeopardizes regional peace and stability. The Horn of Africa cannot afford another conflict fueled by the ambition and dangerous ideology of certain TPLF factions.

The Abiy-TPLF-GT alliance, rather than being a solution, is a perilous gamble that risks plunging the region back into a devastating cycle of violence. The people of Tigray, along with their counterparts in the Afar region of Ethiopia, who have already suffered immensely, cannot endure another war. It is imperative that we recognize these truths to promote lasting peace in the region.